I think there is some kind of case for these forecasts to not be open to the public - if they are important they could be subverted with lots of new forecasters.
Oh balance I think my argument is probably false, but it isn’t stupid.
This seems pretty reasonable that better info leads to fewer wars when wars are bad for almost everyone almost all the time. It is a pretty convenient conclusion that improving epistemic institutions and creating more knowledge and openness has good effects - I wonder how much we should distrust this because of motivated reasoning type concerns? I at least would find it uncomfortable if promoting ignorance and innacuracy seemed to have the best effects in expectation
Two minor things:
I thought it is customary to present game tables with the options in the same order for both players (and thus the diagonal elements being that both players took the same action, or at least this is what I remember seeing.
Sadly 'reprochment' isn't a word, you are thinking of 'rapprochement', but annoyingly to 'reproach' someone has an almost opposite meaning! English :(
I think there is some kind of case for these forecasts to not be open to the public - if they are important they could be subverted with lots of new forecasters.
Oh balance I think my argument is probably false, but it isn’t stupid.
This seems pretty reasonable that better info leads to fewer wars when wars are bad for almost everyone almost all the time. It is a pretty convenient conclusion that improving epistemic institutions and creating more knowledge and openness has good effects - I wonder how much we should distrust this because of motivated reasoning type concerns? I at least would find it uncomfortable if promoting ignorance and innacuracy seemed to have the best effects in expectation
Two minor things:
I thought it is customary to present game tables with the options in the same order for both players (and thus the diagonal elements being that both players took the same action, or at least this is what I remember seeing.
Sadly 'reprochment' isn't a word, you are thinking of 'rapprochement', but annoyingly to 'reproach' someone has an almost opposite meaning! English :(