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I am unsure whether this is just a rephrasing of your crux, but the more intuitive framing for me is simply the question: is the expected value of the future positive?

If severe suffering is lexically prior to happy lives, then even if the future is big and good for almost everyone, it has negative value. While if we are 'normie utilitarians' then the future is (probably) positive.

Is this the same as your conclusion?

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