I am unsure whether this is just a rephrasing of your crux, but the more intuitive framing for me is simply the question: is the expected value of the future positive?
If severe suffering is lexically prior to happy lives, then even if the future is big and good for almost everyone, it has negative value. While if we are 'normie utilitarians' then the future is (probably) positive.
I think there are few other possible implications. If it's possible that there's a tremendous amount of suffering in the future it would be more important to stop that than ensure that there's a good large future. Alternatively one could think that working on something like animal welfare today was more important.
Part of the point of this post was also laying out more clearly how the future people matter, potential people matter and creating more happy people is good premies interact with one another.
I am unsure whether this is just a rephrasing of your crux, but the more intuitive framing for me is simply the question: is the expected value of the future positive?
If severe suffering is lexically prior to happy lives, then even if the future is big and good for almost everyone, it has negative value. While if we are 'normie utilitarians' then the future is (probably) positive.
Is this the same as your conclusion?
Ish
I think there are few other possible implications. If it's possible that there's a tremendous amount of suffering in the future it would be more important to stop that than ensure that there's a good large future. Alternatively one could think that working on something like animal welfare today was more important.
Part of the point of this post was also laying out more clearly how the future people matter, potential people matter and creating more happy people is good premies interact with one another.